How CyWarn calculates
On top of the official warnings, CyWarn calculates its own assessments: where a wildfire is most likely to start today, how the reservoirs will develop and where a fire may spread.
These assessments help you decide, they do not replace official warnings. In an emergency, instructions from the authorities take precedence.
From the source to your phone
Sources
Official warnings and measurements for weather, earthquakes, fires and water.
Processing
Every source is polled around the clock, checked and assigned to a district.
Models
The models turn the data into risk estimates and name the main reasons.
App and website
You see the result in the app and here on the website.
Fire risk today
The map shows the wildfire model's current assessment for the whole island, calculated from live weather data.
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What CyWarn calculates
Three models are live in the app. Every assessment comes with its reasons.
Wildfire risk
For every part of the island, CyWarn estimates how likely a fire is to start today, using heat, wind and how dry it has been recently.
In the appEach area gets a level from low to extreme, with the main reasons, such as strong gusts or a long dry spell.
Water outlook
The model estimates how the reservoirs will develop over the coming weeks, so shortages become visible early.
In the appThe water section shows current levels and where they are heading.
Fire spread
When a fire breaks out, CyWarn calculates where it may move, depending on wind, terrain and vegetation.
In the appThe map shows the possible spread over time. During an acute wildfire emergency this is free.
What the models can and cannot do
The models are trained on real public data, for example a decade of satellite fire detections. Every assessment shows how certain it is and names its reasons.
The models can be wrong. Use them to support decisions, not as a guarantee. In an emergency, the authorities decide.